WN 107 · LAS → TPA

took off 1:19 PM PT · expected to land 8:07 PM ET (scheduled 12:47 PM PT → 8:17 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 107 · LAS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?