WN 1129 · PHX → MDW

departs 6:08 PM MT · arrives 11:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1129 · PHX → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?