WN 1133 · PHX → OAK

departs 10:54 AM MT · arrives 12:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ 10am departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1133 · PHX → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?