WN 1149 · TPA → STL

took off 3:31 PM ET · landed 4:27 PM CT (scheduled 3:23 PM ET → 4:54 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1149 · TPA → STL

Odds over time

How late did it get to STL?