Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 1164 · DAL → OAK
departs 6:50 PM CT · arrives 8:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±7 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.