WN 1165 · AUS → MDW

took off 9:27 AM CT · expected to land 11:31 AM CT (scheduled 9:13 AM CT → 11:53 AM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MDW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MDW that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.18 in

MDW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1165 · AUS → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?