WN 1173 · BNA → TPA

took off 2:39 PM CT · landed 5:04 PM ET (scheduled 2:08 PM CT → 5:00 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 2pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1173 · BNA → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?