WN 1184 · SFO → DAL

took off 3:11 PM PT · expected to land 8:14 PM CT (scheduled 1:54 PM PT → 7:30 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DAL?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
85%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1184 · SFO → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?