Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1190 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

WN 1190 · KOA → SMF

took off 10:14 AM HT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 9:58 AM HT → 6:14 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1190 · KOA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?