WN 1194 · PHX → COS

departs 1:05 PM MT · arrives 3:44 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to COS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 38 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at COS that day

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

COS (destination) Gusts38 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1194 · PHX → COS

Odds over time

How late will it get to COS?