WN 1202 · COS → PHX

departs 5:44 PM MT · arrives 6:36 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 38 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at COS that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

COS (origin) Gusts38 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.70 in

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1202 · COS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?