Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1231 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 1231 · SFO → LAS

took off 5:14 PM PT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:40 PM PT → 6:18 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1231 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?