WN 124 · LAS → SNA

departs 6:04 PM PT · arrives 7:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 124 · LAS → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?