WN 1251 · ORF → BWI

departs 3:25 PM ET · arrives 4:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from ORF are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1251 · ORF → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?