WN 1270 · BOS → AUS

took off 3:04 PM ET · expected to land 5:37 PM CT (scheduled 2:29 PM ET → 5:39 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

LIVE

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1270 · BOS → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?