WN 1364 · BWI → SRQ

took off 1:39 PM ET · landed 3:35 PM ET (scheduled 1:16 PM ET → 3:51 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SRQ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.7 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day

↑ 1pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip4.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1364 · BWI → SRQ

Odds over time

How late did it get to SRQ?