WN 1386 · PHX → HOU

departs 5:41 PM MT · arrives 10:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HOU that day

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1386 · PHX → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?