WN 1416 · BUR → AUS

took off 7:24 AM PT · expected to land 11:52 AM CT (scheduled 7:15 AM PT → 12:10 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ BUR is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1416 · BUR → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?