WN 1422 · SAN → OAK

departs 7:21 AM PT · arrives 8:55 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1422 · SAN → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?