WN 1431 · LAS → SBA

departs 11:35 AM PT · arrives 12:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1431 · LAS → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?