WN 1434 · MDW → TUL

departs 9:27 PM CT · arrives 11:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 9pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ TUL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

TUL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1434 · MDW → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?