WN 1439 · AUS → MCO

departs 5:28 PM CT · arrives 9:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

MCO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1439 · AUS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?