WN 1469 · DEN → BWI

departs 2:50 PM MT · arrives 8:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.44 in

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1469 · DEN → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?