WN 1534 · STL → RDU

departs 6:33 PM CT · arrives 9:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1534 · STL → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?