Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1539 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 1539 · DEN → LGA

took off 5:55 PM MT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:54 PM MT → 10:32 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1539 · DEN → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?