WN 1559 · LAS → STL

departs 5:35 PM PT · arrives 10:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1559 · LAS → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?