WN 1565 · PHX → MKE

departs 4:16 PM MT · arrives 9:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MKE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MKE (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1565 · PHX → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?