Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1574 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 1574 · PHX → STL

departs 6:25 PM MT · arrives 10:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1574 · PHX → STL

Odds over time