WN 1586 · PHX → SNA

took off 4:56 PM MT · landed 5:56 PM PT (scheduled 4:09 PM MT → 5:34 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1586 · PHX → SNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SNA?