Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1594
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 1594 · TUL → PHX
departs 2:05 PM CT · arrives 2:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.43 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.