WN 159 · ORF → BWI

departs 12:20 PM ET · arrives 1:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 159 · ORF → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?