WN 1634 · DEN → PHX

departs 2:59 PM MT · arrives 3:59 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts −22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.35 in

PHX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1634 · DEN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?