WN 1646 · PHL → STL

departs 6:31 AM ET · arrives 7:44 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,443 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1646 · PHL → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?