Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 1741 · DEN → SMF
departs 8:15 AM MT · arrives 9:45 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 20%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.