Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1798
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 1798 · ELP → DEN
departs 4:15 PM MT · arrives 6:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 42%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 30%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
−20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −22 pts in 24h
−22 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.