WN 1822 · SMF → ONT

departs 11:47 AM PT · arrives 1:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ONT at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1822 · SMF → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?