Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 184 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 184 · AUS → SFO

took off 5:17 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:59 PM CT → 6:33 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 184 · AUS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?