WN 1882 · HNL → SMF

took off 11:14 AM HT · expected to land 6:59 PM PT (scheduled 11:07 AM HT → 7:26 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.75 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1882 · HNL → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?