WN 1902 · HOU → BWI

departs 3:52 PM CT · arrives 8:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HOU that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from HOU are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1902 · HOU → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?