Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2040 · JAN → HOU
departs 7:15 PM CT · arrives 8:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
Weather at each end
JAN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.