Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2074
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2074 · SAT → TPA
departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.