Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2138
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 2138 · PHX → OGG
departs 9:20 AM MT · arrives 12:40 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 16%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
9am departures from PHX are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.