Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2199
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2199 · LAS → OAK
departs 11:05 AM PT · arrives 12:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.