WN 2216 · AUS → SNA

took off 6:45 PM CT · expected to land 7:31 PM PT (scheduled 5:05 PM CT → 6:16 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SNA?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
98%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2216 · AUS → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?