WN 2226 · BNA → LIT

departs 8:40 PM CT · arrives 10:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2226 · BNA → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?