Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2236 LANDED 4:58 PM CT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 2236 · AUS → MSY

took off 3:56 PM CT · landed 4:58 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

MSY (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2236 · AUS → MSY

Odds over time