WN 2238 · MCO → SJU

took off 11:10 AM ET · landed 1:34 PM AT (scheduled 10:35 AM ET → 1:33 PM AT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SJU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2238 · MCO → SJU

Odds over time

How late did it get to SJU?