Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2246
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2246 · SDF → MDW
departs 7:45 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.59 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.