WN 2247 · LAS → PHX

departs 4:15 PM PT · arrives 5:25 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2247 · LAS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?