WN 2248 · LAS → PHX

departs 5:16 PM PT · arrives 6:33 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2248 · LAS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?